Editors’ Note: The following is an unofficial translation of the editorial “Sinais de aprofundamento da crise mundial” by the Brazilian democratic newspaper, A Nova Democracia.
By the Editorial Board of A Nova Democracia
The world economy has not emerged from the cyclical crisis, within the general crisis of imperialism, which it plunged into in the second quarter of 2019, and another bubble is already building up. The only imperialist power that went against the recessionary trend in the 2019-2021 period, China, is now on the verge of its own general crisis of relative overproduction, specifically in the real estate sector, which is the main branch of its economy, accounting for 30% of its GDP and therefore concentrating a large mass of its proletariat; not to mention the subsidiary branches that sustain and operate around this activity.
The Chinese corporation Evergrande, the second largest in the country, contracted and accumulated a debt of $300 billion dollars to boost production in the real estate sector. Both fictitious capital (speculative economy) fled, decreasing the general price of shares in the financial market (capital devaluation), as well as land prices in China declined (17.5%, in August 2021), producing the same effect. There are already 65 million homes on the market and idle in China, equivalent to the total number of homes in France. Overproduction is already a given, just missing its effective collapse.
Such is the fundamental law of capitalism, raised to the thousandth degree in its monopoly and final phase (imperialism): productivity, unprecedentedly raised by the monopoly bourgeoisie with the aim of making production cheaper and reaching the maximum possible rate of profit, goes beyond the capacity of social consumption. The low wages – just the bare minimum – paid to the proletariat and the working masses, added to an unstoppable growth in global production, making it impossible for such commodities to find markets– and therefore for capital to be invested in all branches of the economy and in speculation, including fictitious capital. Or rather: there are potential consumers, people who want and need goods, but they cannot buy them as they need them, in the same proportion in which they are produced. The result is the general cyclical crisis of relative overproduction, which, you see, can only be relatively quelled with the further growth of the impoverishment of the masses and productivity, a combination whose overflow will be a potentially even more catastrophic crises, one worse than the other.
When defaults and mass layoffs erupt in this sector of the Chinese economy – since it is not possible to continue producing for a saturated market – the consumer market will become even more restricted, since such unemployed people will, in practice, be excluded from it; just as the default will produce the collapse of other sectors of the economy, in a domino effect, which will aggravate the restriction of the market, decisively affecting the world market. As Marx says, this is the only dialectic – the dialectic of the general crisis of capital – that capitalists can understand when crises break out, because it hits their heads with a hammer!
It is clear that the outbreak of an overproduction crisis in China would have an economic impact on the entire world imperialist system; the social and political impacts are even more serious, with a tendency to further development of the revolutionary situation, albeit unevenly across the world, with increasing numbers of spontaneous uprisings and, where there are minimally established subjective factors, to leaps in the development of this same revolutionary situation. The looting of oppressed nations will worsen – as it already is – with the withdrawal of labor rights across the globe, as well as, necessarily, the withdrawal of fundamental democratic rights, in progress, increasing reactionization and fascism, in the merciless pursuit of maximum profit. This is how the struggle and collusion between the superpowers will intensify in the imperialist camp, between the superpowers and the powers, and between the powers themselves, for control of captive markets for the capital and goods of their corporations and to plunder labor power and raw materials at minimal costs, which produce and/or aggravate internal crises in the semi-colonies, instabilities and, at the limit, imperialist military invasions to subvert the unwanted regime. The serious crises in Kazakhstan and the troop movements in Eastern Europe are all part of this necessary struggle.
It is within this stage, let us remember, that Brazil is positioned, as a semi-colony integrated into the imperialist system of domination, mainly Yankee. In this context, the deep crisis of its bureaucratic capitalism occurs – the biggest in its history, which has been dragging on for seven years – added to the biggest crisis of legitimacy of the State apparatus of the last 40 years, a scenario in which a promising revolutionary mass movement acts firmly, with discipline, and grows.
Now, in the midst of all this situation, it is necessary to win more and more masses to revolutionary tactics, to convince them that the reactionary elections and their clash of puppets must be thrown to the winds; demonstrating to them that, whatever the outcome, the elections, by conjuring up the danger of a Revolution, will only serve to seal the program of the preventive counterrevolutionary offensive consisting of savage repression of the fighting masses and the revolutionary movement. This program whose fundamental pillars have already been outlined and publicized by the High Command of the Armed Forces since 2015 and assumed relatively in advance by those with real chances of winning them. It is necessary to be firm in showing that the victory of opportunism will only mystify the very serious danger in which the homeland finds itself, because, as Lenin reminds us, “petty-bourgeois democracy is incapable of maintaining power, always serving to cover up the dictatorship of bourgeoisie, only as a stepping stone to the absolute power of the bourgeoisie.”
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